When is the first frost in new jersey

Most areas of New Jersey are under their first freeze warning or frost advisory of the 2021 fall season Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with forecasters calling for cold air to sweep in and temperatures to drop to the upper 20s to low 30s.

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Daily record lows
Current weather radar
Van Buren 2, ME (Aroostook county):
Bridgewater, ME (Aroostook county):
Houlton Faa Ap, ME (Aroostook county):

If the mercury dips to 32 degrees or lower anywhere in New Jersey, it will mark the state’s first official freeze of the season.

The Garden State went through all of September and all of October without any weather reporting stations — even those in the cold hills and valleys of Sussex County — hitting the freezing mark, according to data from the Rutgers NJ Weather Network and the National Weather Service.

How rare is that?

New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson, whose office at Rutgers oversees the state’s climate data, said he checked the stats going all the way back to 1900 and wasn’t able to find any fall season in which no towns reached the 32-degree mark by Oct. 31.

With no 32-degree readings recorded during the first two days of November, it is looking likely we will see the first one of the season early Wednesday morning, according to forecasts from the National Weather Service.

Will that be New Jersey’s latest first freeze? The answer is no. (See the chart below for details.)

This graphic shows the earliest, average and latest dates of the first freeze of the season in different areas of New Jersey. A freeze is considered 32 degrees or colder.Len Melisurgo | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

Stats show New Brunswick has recorded its first freeze of the season as late as Nov. 13, and Atlantic City International Airport in Pomona has had its first freeze as late as Nov. 17.

Trenton has had its first freeze as late as Dec. 1, Newark Liberty International Airport has had its first freeze as late as Dec. 2, and the Atlantic City Marina has recorded its first freeze as late as Jan. 4 — making it all the way through November and December without hitting that mark.

Daily record lows

As for any daily record low temperatures being reached Wednesday morning, it looks unlikely, based on the latest forecasts.

The record lows for Nov. 3 at weather reporting stations with longtime data are 29 degrees in Newark (set in 1951), 26 degrees in Trenton (set in 1986), 23 degrees in New Brunswick (set in 1980) and 19 degrees in Atlantic City (set in 1980).

Current weather radar

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Len Melisurgo may be reached at .

First and last freeze/frost dates for:

Each winter, on average, your risk of frost is from
September 16 through May 30.

Almost certainly, however, you will receive frost from September 29 through May 15.

You are almost guaranteed that you will not get frost from June 13 through September 2.

Your frost-free growing season is around 109 days.

Detailed station data* follows:

Van Buren 2, ME (Aroostook county):

Temperature	10%	20%	30%	40%	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%
Spring 32°	Jun 13	Jun 8	Jun 5	Jun 1	May 30	May 27	May 24	May 20	May 15
Spring 28°	May 29	May 25	May 22	May 19	May 16	May 14	May 11	May 8	May 4
Spring 24°	May 14	May 10	May 7	May 4	May 2	Apr 30	Apr 27	Apr 24	Apr 20
Fall 32°	Sep 2	Sep 7	Sep 10	Sep 13	Sep 16	Sep 18	Sep 21	Sep 25	Sep 29
Fall 28°	Sep 14	Sep 19	Sep 23	Sep 26	Sep 29	Oct 2	Oct 5	Oct 9	Oct 14
Fall 24°	Sep 25	Sep 29	Oct 3	Oct 6	Oct 9	Oct 12	Oct 15	Oct 18	Oct 23

Bridgewater, ME (Aroostook county):

Temperature	10%	20%	30%	40%	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%
Spring 32°	Jun 17	Jun 11	Jun 6	Jun 2	May 30	May 26	May 22	May 18	May 11
Spring 28°	May 31	May 26	May 23	May 20	May 17	May 14	May 11	May 7	May 2
Spring 24°	May 16	May 11	May 7	May 3	Apr 30	Apr 27	Apr 23	Apr 19	Apr 14
Fall 32°	Aug 25	Aug 30	Sep 3	Sep 6	Sep 9	Sep 12	Sep 15	Sep 19	Sep 24
Fall 28°	Sep 13	Sep 18	Sep 21	Sep 24	Sep 27	Sep 30	Oct 2	Oct 6	Oct 11
Fall 24°	Sep 30	Oct 3	Oct 6	Oct 8	Oct 10	Oct 12	Oct 14	Oct 17	Oct 20

Houlton Faa Ap, ME (Aroostook county):

Temperature	10%	20%	30%	40%	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%
Spring 32°	Jun 15	Jun 10	Jun 7	Jun 4	Jun 1	May 29	May 26	May 23	May 18
Spring 28°	May 27	May 23	May 20	May 18	May 16	May 13	May 11	May 8	May 4
Spring 24°	May 14	May 9	May 6	May 4	May 1	Apr 29	Apr 26	Apr 23	Apr 19
Fall 32°	Sep 1	Sep 6	Sep 9	Sep 12	Sep 15	Sep 17	Sep 20	Sep 23	Sep 28
Fall 28°	Sep 17	Sep 21	Sep 24	Sep 26	Sep 28	Sep 30	Oct 3	Oct 6	Oct 10
Fall 24°	Sep 29	Oct 2	Oct 5	Oct 7	Oct 9	Oct 11	Oct 13	Oct 15	Oct 18

* This station data is available courtesy the National Climatic Data Center.

For each weather station, you will see a temperature along with tables of data organized into percentage columns. The percentage column tells you the probability that you will experience that row's temperature on or near that date. Here are two examples to help you determine your probable last frost and first freeze dates.

Example 1 (Last Frost). In the Spring 32° row, if you have "Apr 15" under the 50% column, that means you have a 50% chance of seeing frost on or before April 15th.

Example 2 (First Freeze). In the Fall 24° row, if you have "Dec 1" under the 90% column, that means you have a 90% chance of seeing 24 degrees on or after December 1st.

Empty cells indicate you have a less than 10% chance of ever seeing that temperature.

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