Most areas of New Jersey are under their first freeze warning or frost advisory of the 2021 fall season Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with forecasters calling for cold air to sweep in and temperatures to drop to the upper 20s to low 30s.
If the mercury dips to 32 degrees or lower anywhere in New Jersey, it will mark the state’s first official freeze of the season.
The Garden State went through all of September and all of October without any weather reporting stations — even those in the cold hills and valleys of Sussex County — hitting the freezing mark, according to data from the Rutgers NJ Weather Network and the National Weather Service.
How rare is that?
New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson, whose office at Rutgers oversees the state’s climate data, said he checked the stats going all the way back to 1900 and wasn’t able to find any fall season in which no towns reached the 32-degree mark by Oct. 31.
With no 32-degree readings recorded during the first two days of November, it is looking likely we will see the first one of the season early Wednesday morning, according to forecasts from the National Weather Service.
Will that be New Jersey’s latest first freeze? The answer is no. (See the chart below for details.)
This graphic shows the earliest, average and latest dates of the first freeze of the season in different areas of New Jersey. A freeze is considered 32 degrees or colder.Len Melisurgo | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
Stats show New Brunswick has recorded its first freeze of the season as late as Nov. 13, and Atlantic City International Airport in Pomona has had its first freeze as late as Nov. 17.
Trenton has had its first freeze as late as Dec. 1, Newark Liberty International Airport has had its first freeze as late as Dec. 2, and the Atlantic City Marina has recorded its first freeze as late as Jan. 4 — making it all the way through November and December without hitting that mark.
Daily record lows
As for any daily record low temperatures being reached Wednesday morning, it looks unlikely, based on the latest forecasts.
The record lows for Nov. 3 at weather reporting stations with longtime data are 29 degrees in Newark (set in 1951), 26 degrees in Trenton (set in 1986), 23 degrees in New Brunswick (set in 1980) and 19 degrees in Atlantic City (set in 1980).
Current weather radar
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First and last freeze/frost dates for:
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Detailed station data* follows:
Van Buren 2, ME (Aroostook county):
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
Spring 32° | Jun 13 | Jun 8 | Jun 5 | Jun 1 | May 30 | May 27 | May 24 | May 20 | May 15 |
Spring 28° | May 29 | May 25 | May 22 | May 19 | May 16 | May 14 | May 11 | May 8 | May 4 |
Spring 24° | May 14 | May 10 | May 7 | May 4 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 |
Fall 32° | Sep 2 | Sep 7 | Sep 10 | Sep 13 | Sep 16 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 25 | Sep 29 |
Fall 28° | Sep 14 | Sep 19 | Sep 23 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 14 |
Fall 24° | Sep 25 | Sep 29 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 23 |
Bridgewater, ME (Aroostook county):
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
Spring 32° | Jun 17 | Jun 11 | Jun 6 | Jun 2 | May 30 | May 26 | May 22 | May 18 | May 11 |
Spring 28° | May 31 | May 26 | May 23 | May 20 | May 17 | May 14 | May 11 | May 7 | May 2 |
Spring 24° | May 16 | May 11 | May 7 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 14 |
Fall 32° | Aug 25 | Aug 30 | Sep 3 | Sep 6 | Sep 9 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 19 | Sep 24 |
Fall 28° | Sep 13 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 | Oct 11 |
Fall 24° | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 8 | Oct 10 | Oct 12 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 |
Houlton Faa Ap, ME (Aroostook county):
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
Spring 32° | Jun 15 | Jun 10 | Jun 7 | Jun 4 | Jun 1 | May 29 | May 26 | May 23 | May 18 |
Spring 28° | May 27 | May 23 | May 20 | May 18 | May 16 | May 13 | May 11 | May 8 | May 4 |
Spring 24° | May 14 | May 9 | May 6 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 19 |
Fall 32° | Sep 1 | Sep 6 | Sep 9 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 17 | Sep 20 | Sep 23 | Sep 28 |
Fall 28° | Sep 17 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 26 | Sep 28 | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 |
Fall 24° | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 7 | Oct 9 | Oct 11 | Oct 13 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 |
* This station data is available courtesy the National Climatic Data Center.
For each weather station, you will see a temperature along with tables of data organized into percentage columns. The percentage column tells you the probability that you will experience that row's temperature on or near that date. Here are two examples to help you determine your probable last frost and first freeze dates.
Example 1 (Last Frost). In the Spring 32° row, if you have "Apr 15" under the 50% column, that means you have a 50% chance of seeing frost on or before April 15th.
Example 2 (First Freeze). In the Fall 24° row, if you have "Dec 1" under the 90% column, that means you have a 90% chance of seeing 24 degrees on or after December 1st.
Empty cells indicate you have a less than 10% chance of ever seeing that temperature.
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